Controlled and uncontrolled global risk. The problem of understanding of global risk

Our knowledge of the different effects on the probability of different risks. There are "dangerous risks," that is, those to which we are on this or otherwise we can not get ready - in contrast to the risks to which we can prepare easily and quickly. Preparing for risk includes the following conditions: Know in advance that some kind of event can happen, trust the information and accept decision prepare some preventative measures. We can fairly accurately calculate the probability of the event at any time. (An example of such a risk is the asteroid threat.) We have some precursors Read more [...]
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Vorobeynik drug

Perennial herb with a long woody, often twisted roots and densely leafy branched stems 30-80 cm tall leaves are alternate, lanceolate, hard, sharp, dark green above, paler below, sparsely prizhatoopushennye long and 2.5-9 cm 5-10 mm wide, with prominent veins on the lower side, the lower scale-like leaves. Flowers in apical short curls, racemose or umbellate located in the upper part of the stem, with much fruit curls longer. Calyx up to 4 mm, almost to base into linear white bristles share, elongating in fruit up to 10 mm. Corolla small (6-8 mm long), with broadly limb, yellowish-green or whitish, Read more [...]
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In Tobago, It’s All Full

Pigeon Period, a Tobagonian megalopolis     Pic: Pete Inshore/Tony Lapidate ImagesDeliver you heard the cry of the powerful chachalaca? Fountainhead, neither had I. But o'er our heads leastwise a 12 of the turkey-size, maniacally forte birds were shifty around on bromeliad-bearded branches, screaming Co-co-rico! Co-co-rico! Something evenly blatant answered with a Tarzan-movie cry: Hur-rah hur-rah hur-rah! First-class for us. Subsequently snaking done bamboo and head-butting banana leaves, we were below the canopy of Tobago's Primary Rooftree rainforest, in sun-freckled, flower-scented Read more [...]
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Swinging controls

Effect was a pioneer of cybernetics von Neumann. It manifests itself in the hands of patients with Parkinson's tremor, in control of the aircraft and artillery fire. Substance it is that the control system receives information about the state of the controlled setting of delay, resulting in the control action is not subtracted from the parameter, and added to them, leading to greater fluctuations. In the global risks and new technologies it can manifest in the fact that understanding of these fundamentally new processes will lag behind the development of the problem, which is why attempts Read more [...]
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Global disinfection

Spread of dangerous biological forms can lead to complete contamination of the biosphere. In this case there are options: A) People will have to take refuge in isolated protected shelters. But will always be a threat of importation of dangerous biological agents outside. B) Biological control of hazardous agents: the spraying of antibiotics, anti-virus. B) Creation of an artificial immune system of the Earth. But this is possible only after a preliminary "cleansing" and presented new threats associated with the risk of "auto-immune reaction." D) total sterilization live nature. Read more [...]
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Degradation of the biosphere

In contrast to human, animal and plant life can not go into the bunkers himself. In the case of irreversible damage to biological systems in the world, and especially the environment people will never be able to return to the pre-historic level of existence. (Unless, of course, they will not use biological sverhtehnologiyami.) Traditional hunting and agriculture will not be possible - will only grow all necessary products in sealed greenhouses. If extinct animals can be reestablish, just released a "pair of every creature," that is as simple reestablish soil and air will not work. Read more [...]
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War as a factor in the scenario

Wars were in history. By itself, a conventional war between the people can not lead to human extinction, because the survivors are always winners. According to Clausewitz, war, are of two types: the achievement of concessions, and for total conquest / destruction. It is clear that the second type of war, when one of the parties cornered, far more dangerous to human life, as it creates the conditions for the use of weapons "judgment day" as a last resort. Further, the war we are referring to the classic armed clash between the two countries inhabited by people. The armed struggle of Read more [...]
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Leaping Threads

    Assos Arbitrate T-shirt ($220; The Arbitrate is a t-shirt for all seasons, with a wind-blocking forepart and sweat-evaporating backbone. A wax zip adds eventide more respiration, patch trey backrest pockets clutches your Christmas pillage. Asolo Momentaneous GTX Boots ($165; Escape from those madding Christmas crowds in a duad of Asolo Fugitives. They whirl gravid accompaniment, grippy soles, and an ankle-hugging dog that keeps you stalls and blister-free. Eagle Brook Macadamise 25 Baggage ($265; Jet off with the silky new Read more [...]
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Places like the scenario factor

Revenge is a continuation of hostilities, but in the highest form. Say, between the two major nuclear powers occurred war, and one of the powers it completely lost - it caused unacceptable damage, while the other escaped with relatively small losses. At the losing side - the loss of half of the population of all major cities, defense capabilities. It is very likely that in this case the place will become a national idea. Historical experience shows that some people can be put on the brink of destruction, and they respond more aggressive and dangerous forms of resistance. For example, the support Read more [...]
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The hostility in the society as a scenario factor

It can be assumed that the crisis will lead to a sharp increase in hostility in the world. One of the best examples of recent surge of hostility in the world was the situation that arose after the attacks of September 11, 2001, when many people expected "war Civilizations "will nature of the world war. Splash hostility may have the following consequences: The polarization of society into different groups that hate each other. Filament growth of negative emotions (negative emotional background) and increasing the number of people willing to violence and aspiring to it, which increases Read more [...]
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The moral degradation

It is often said that moral degradation can destroy humanity. It is clear that the moral degradation not be a global first-order risk, because in itself it does not kill anyone, and talk about the moral decline of go with the times of ancient Greece. However, the moral degradation of the ruling elite is considered essential factor of the decline of the Roman Empire. The concept of "moral degradation"I do not invest their own moral assessment evaluation, and mean those attitudes and behaviors that make society less stable and more susceptible to all sorts of crises. First of all, it's Read more [...]
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Gripe Started

On Casey: Hanker cervix (6 for $5.99) by Budweiser     Pic: Photo by Susanna HoweCONOR CASEYForrader, Colorado RapidsDuring the off-season, Casey, a 28-year-old Denver nonmigratory, hikes fourteeners with his dad and practices yoga to unlax. But nada could birth fain him for what happened finish October when the U.S. Internal Squad travelled to San Pedro Sula, Honduras, in hunting of a Earth Cup bid. Though the nation was calm reeling from June's military takeover, the metropolis's 9 p.m. curfew had been relaxed for the nighttime, and the over-capacity herd was thunderous—until Read more [...]
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Veronica corymbose

A perennial herb with long, thin rhizomes and stalks of 8 to 50 cm Stems weak, ascending, rooting at the bottom. The leaves are opposite, linear or linear-lanceolate, up to 5 cm and a width of 5 mm, sharp, finely spaced, with teeth toward the base sheet and the glands under the teeth, sessile. Flowers in rare flowered brush, located in the axils of leaves (only one of the two opposite). Pedicels filiform, several times higher than a cup. Bracts lanceolate. Calyx with four lobes lanceolate, 2-3 times shorter than the corolla and boxes. Corolla pale blue or off-white, with pink or dark blue Read more [...]
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Arms race

Race weapons is dangerous not only because it can lead to a doomsday weapon. In the speed of the arms race will have to put dangerous experiments with lower security requirements and with a higher probability of leaks of hazardous substances. In addition, the superweapon total destruction may be a by-product or a special case of the use of conventional weapons. For example, the idea of a cobalt bomb came after it necessary for a conventional atomic bomb was conceived and created. The development of technology for military purposes particularly dangerous poisonous insects allow them to create Read more [...]
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Stocking Stuffers

Clam Tiburon Urine Sports Tongue ($72; The Tiburon is a tongue, a cheat, a socket sprain—and the complete empower for a canoeist. Highgear AdventurePlus Prick ($20; This appliance is very six tools in one, with a smart LED lightness, apprehend, thermometer, magnifying deoxyephedrine, point mirror, and pennywhistle. Petzl Tikka Asset LED Headlight ($36; Foursome lights and iv outturn settings shuffle the Tikka Addition one of the well-nigh various headlamps on the satellite. Snowfall Eyeshade Ti Spork ($9; It's Read more [...]
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Vulnerability to the effects of ultra-low

The next factor is the vulnerability of the scenario highly complex systems to infinitesimal effects - that can be used to organize sabotage. (Due to the addition of some very non-linear weak events can have a much greater effect than each of them individually, which reduces the accuracy requirements selection and implementation of each event.) Of course, to correctly calculate such impact, need superintelligence able to simulate extremely complex system. So, this intelligence must be more complicated the system, and this system must not contain any other such intelligence. This situation can Read more [...]
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An important factor in future global risks is the possibility of the emergence of "kriptovoyn" - that is anonymous sudden shock when unknown who striker, and sometimes not obvious fact of the attack (the term S. Lem [Lem, 1990]). When the global arms race, there are more than two opponents, it is tempting application anonymously (that is, with impunity) strike, designed to weaken or one of the parties, or disrupt the balance. Obviously, sverhtehnologii provide new opportunities for the organization of such an attack. If earlier it could be delivery of a radioactive substance or a missile Read more [...]
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Systemic technological crisis — the most likely scenario of global catastrophe

This statement is based on the following premise, we separately discussed in previous chapters. Most of the major technological disasters, from the disaster of "Titanic", were systemic in nature, that is, did not have a single cause, and appeared as a manifestation of the system in the form of an unlikely set of circumstances with unpredictable different plans: design, management, systematic violations of regulations, intellectual blindness, and over-reliance, technical failures and unlikely coincidences. Through iVB / C-convergence and by simultaneous depletion of interchangeable Read more [...]
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Systemic crisis and technological risks

Can be considered system the crisis of modern society without looking at new opportunities and dangers that create new technology. Then this crisis will be described in terms of economic, political and environmental crisis. Can be called a crisis of social and economic system crisis. On the other hand, one can consider the space of opportunities created by the emergence and interaction friend another of many different new technologies. For example, to explore how advances in biotechnology will affect our ability to create artificial intelligence and interaction with him. This process can be Read more [...]
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Overconsumption leads to a simultaneous depletion of resources

Some resources can not simply end, but to be exhausted, so to speak, in the negative. For example, the super-exploitation of soils leads to rapid and complete erosion. This question has been studied Meadows in his "limits to growth". Exploring mathematical models, it is revealed that no one resource overconsumption system inevitably leads to the edge of doom. For example, an excess of predators leads to the decrease in the number of victims, then all of the victims to a single die, and predators themselves starve. Other Example - when the pollution is so high that the medium is the Read more [...]
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