Today, the U.S. economy looks the most powerful in the world, is a large domestic market, the dollar — the basis of the global financial system, the U.S. — the largest owner: U.S. citizens and corporations owned 55% of the issued shares in the world.
As well as the U.S. — the world's largest debtor, creating instability. For this reason, happen in America crisis, he detonates a world-wide catastrophe. For this reason, the question of stability of the world economy, and hence the world society today is reduced to the stability of the economy and the U.S. financial system.
Starting a conversation about it, just have to warn that it is not going to show the whole picture and all the details, the American subjects and so constantly in the public attention, and there is no need to repeat the well-known. But in its statement to try to avoid the usual newsmen qualitative assessments: will neither praise the U.S. or humiliate. We have already expressed their opinion: America must regret. This is a trial run of its peoples technology fooling the masses. This is its residents to "rabbit", which put their experiments the inventors of genetically modified food. Americans have made it in the "jaws" globalized — ing market, convincing them to survive in a normal market. This is from the American boys and girls are preparing cold-blooded killers, and then driven to distant lands to protect the interests of transnational corporations, where they sow seeds of hatred for America …
Thus, the American economy. It has very strong elements: the information technology country ahead of the rest of the world for a decade or more. The defense sector in the U.S. is very powerful, in particular because of their leading position in the field of information technology. The United States is also very powerful banking and insurance system.
And yet … Overall, the economy of this country is not as strong as some economists argue. Foreign trade deficit remains high for a long time: in the United States currently have the rest of the world 3 trillion. dollars! This is 30% of the U.S. GDP. Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s was triggered when debts
Mexico only slightly higher than the same mark of 30% of GDP. Let's face it: to have a huge trade deficit and continue to accumulate international debts — hence extremely risky and endanger not only themselves, but the whole world.
Another confirmation of weakness, when the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) started the game on a weaker dollar and fell by almost a third (we say more about this in more detail), all held their breath in anticipation of significant growth in U.S. exports, as exported goods become more competitive. And what happened? No growth was not followed, because a large proportion of the U.S. economy is not strong! Thin and unproductive American auto industry. When the German "Daimler" bought the third-largest American car company "Chrysler" to found "Daimler-Chrysler" and made great strides, the Germans discovered to his horror that the technology "Chrysler" ten years behind the Germans. And this case is not unique.
With information technology everything is not okay. When these military developments have gone to civilian production in America began a great noise: this is it, "bright future", let's develop a new economy, that is, production and distribution of goods from the massive use of information technology, and all we can do it. Assumed tremendous increase in productivity, increase in the goods and income, complete re managerial traditional economy.
The result? Terrible scam, fraud at every step. Rapid de-industrialization began, traditional economics just "bent." It turned out information technology are very dependent on their money, and benefit from it in the form of increased productivity no no. Resources for — consumes this "new economy" along with several other industries that are developing quickly, such as wholesale and retail trade, higher than what they are returned to the economy. In price terms, the lack of equal approximately 10% of U.S. GDP! That is, to maintain the current levels of the "new economy" is necessary to invest in it as much more than it gives back.
Of course, first, this is exactly what was expected: when you start upgrading any industry, must always spend more than they receive, in the hope that in time this will change. But the American "new economy" requires continuous investments and all the years of its development the incoming flows exceed outgoing. And now it is clear that the informatization not only gave America no advantage, and drove it into a structural crisis, and quite clear how out of it to get out. This "new economy" has sucked all the juice out of the rest of the economy. Appears more and more industries in which no money is not only to develop, but even at the normal reproduction. Ceased to exist entire industries. For example, in the U.S. there is practically no textile industry, there is no production of TV sets and much more do not.
Accordingly, unemployment jumped.
Before that, it was believed that the jobs lost as a result of the information revolution in material production, offset by growth in employment in trade and banking, in the provision of services. But the newspaper "Wall Street Journal" wrote in February 1994: "A large part of the vast services sector in the U.S., seems to be on the verge of revolution, similar to that which has already shaken agriculture and manufacturing, where employment is declining for many years, while production is growing … "
But this is to be expected. Manufacturing and services sector, experiencing a technological revolution, has long been losing millions of jobs. In the course are machines, but living people remain outside of progress and is unlikely to ever be able to get a new high-tech global economy. Now, after the disappearance of the "blue collar" (manufacturing working class), a similar fate befell the "white collar" (sector financial and other services). A U.S. bank cashier to computer systems. Reducing the number of secretaries.
Over the 1990s, hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in sectors such as insurance, accounting and auditing accounting, communications, air transport, retail, hospitality, etc. Since the early 2000's in the same direction moved the wholesale and retail trade. It is expected that over time, most of the wholesale trade could become extinct as a result of information and better coordination between the producers and the world of marketing. As to the retailer, then, according to the authoritative magazine "Forbes", the new technology of "a serious threat to the traditional retail sector and for 19m. employed people in it. "
Technological progress is beginning to tell even in the field of education and the arts. Librarians replace electronic systems. The advent of electronic music synthesizers negative impact on the fate of many musicians to assess one of the leaders of the American Federation of Musicians, employment of musicians in recent years has dwindled, with synthesizers executed over 50% of the music for the TV commercial programs. New electronic technologies threaten even the actors-singers! Today, producers of film and television movies can, using footage from the archives, create new movies with movie stars of the past, including the already deceased. Demand for live actors can fall sharply. After the deceased "stars" will cost for producers immeasurably cheaper.
However, the scientific and technological revolution is not limited to an increase in unemployment. Falling real wages, and those who still work! In the U.S., more than a quarter of all workers are already working on a temporary scheme, receiving, of course, lower wages. The concept of "working poor" — a new globalism, it means people who are having a job, yet earn enough to cover the basic necessities of life.
At the same time there is a significant intensification of work, increasing fatigue of all categories of workers, and their fatigue is not physical, as before, and neuropsychiatric associated with the change of the nature of work. And while productivity has not grown! If the statistics of the comparative performance of the European Union and the United States consider the actual performance of the information technology sector, the output per man-hour will be higher in the EU than in the U.S.. Somehow, this is not often mention the international financial press, the IMF or anyone else.
So, unfortunately, have to give up the hope that the U.S. economy is strong and competitive.
But there is a danger far more unpleasant. We have in mind the problems with the reliability of the U.S. stock market.
Economists do not like to use the word "crisis" in talking about the United States. Say, a recession. They do not like hints of re — regretost their stock market, say, American stock "bubble" is not so speculative, and generally it is not. In the spring of 2000, the market collapsed, there was drop in the index NASDAQ (reflecting precisely the state of affairs in the field of high technology) by 30-40%. Known financier George Soros as a consequence lost three quarters of its assets. Then he uttered his famous phrase: "The music was over, and they all dance," referring to the market participants.
By mid-2000 showed and the other "negative". In July, the index plummeted PMI, a very significant index characterizing the future activity of the real sector of the economy. His fall commented experts not just in alarming tones — we are talking about the macroeconomic problems that the momentum generated by the global economy, the introduction of new information and communication technologies, exhausted, what lies ahead — a long and painful recession. Began flight of private capital from the U.S..
In November 2000, the government first announced the direct support of the stock market. In January 2001, the U.S. Federal Reserve began drastically reducing interest rates in the hope it will be possible to support the stock market, but it did not work.
Now, the stock took a typical recession (crisis, let's face it) character. That is, the rapid failure of the course should be a slow, gradual recovery, which does not reach the previous level, as the new recession. At first they thought that the recession will affect mainly the sector of "virtual" high-tech economy, a year later, it became clear that this is a structural crisis is really affecting, and medium-and low-tech units of the U.S. economy, in which there is a reduction in jobs.
Grew up interest rates, contributions to the reserve fund and the yield and reduces the cost of corporate bonds. As a result, the industry began to experience a lack of money, and the procession moved with positive feedback, that is, the problem grew like a snowball on the scheme: the fall of lending — the fall of consumption — the decline in production — non-payment.
Thus ended a successful U.S. business cycle, which began in 1982 under Reagan. This period, except for a small recession of the early 1990s, had a high rate of economic growth, low inflation, characterized by a low level of unemployment.
If you analyze what brought such success, among other things, to the fore credit expansion, which performs the Fed. Monetary instrument "pump" was used in the real-estate crisis of the late 1980's and savings banks in a crisis of the early 1990s, when the Mexican peso crisis in 1995. A similar behavior of the Fed could be seen during the Asian crisis of 1997, the Russian default and devaluation in 1998. Economy as a result of such a policy simply blossomed. And we always said that the need for economic development only a means of exchange, and spoils her only interest component.
And it would be good, but the level of corporate debt quickly took off. Lose track of what level of corporate debt in general say, and what not. The same thing happened with personal debts. In the 1990's were able to use credit cards populations, who previously could never have dreamed of it, what was very powerfully reinforced by consumer demand, in 2000, the Americans ("the world's jaw") will require 700 billion dollars more than earned.
Today the debt is maximal at the household level, at the corporate level and at the level of the federal government. And the Fed is still no other tools than raising or lowering lending rates and overprinting of money. In general, this strategy, though, and is perceived as a natural market, it seems very risky. If the strategy does not work and reduce the cost of money will not lead to economic recovery will start strong rise in unemployment and a further reduction in consumer spending. If, on the contrary, will be successful and consumer spending will grow the economy "will come to life," but the inherent imbalances persist. It's no good end can not.
No less serious stability problems with the dollar. Its strengths and weaknesses lie in the fact that it serves as the world's reserve currency. Force — because every person of the world economy, the fear of currency risk for the dollar, lending the U.S.. Weakness — because failure of "any entity" from the dollar will bring down the dollar. Global monopoly on insurance exchange risk, the U.S. can not insure against the risk of themselves!
America, pushing developing countries to extremely tight fiscal policy, a policy itself supersoft. Money supply growth is very high, and to keep inflation at a low level can be only due to the constant "dropping" of excess dollar supply from the United States. So America leaves all the benefits of a soft financial policies, and the disadvantages, especially inflation, "give" less developed countries. In other words, these countries, taking dollar supply, import Statement inflation and economic instability in general.
Hence the threat constantly hanging over the U.S. — a possible reduction in the attractiveness of the dollar as the global currency. If you see another, more attractive for other countries currency, a dollar supply, serving the needs of the world, will become surplus to requirements of the USA. The result is predictable: the sharp depreciation of the dollar and the economy collapsed. Hence the hostility of American strategists to any building projects of regional currencies for international payments.
The first attempt to create a regional currency was made in Europe in 1992. Then the European Monetary Union was destroyed speculative attack by George Soros, is buried in September 1992, the first joint European single currency — ECU. Effectiveness of stroke caused suspicion that, in addition to various speculative interests, Soros acted as a tool of the American government, who wanted to destroy the ECU as a competitor to the dollar.
This lesson benefited them. Europeans spent six years on the expansion and deepening of integration in 1999, the same went for the single currency — the euro, creating real conditions for the replacement of the dollar's global turnover. In this case, the U.S. refused the services of financial speculators such as Soros (which, perhaps, was due to his frustration in modern capitalism), and focused on the direct impact on Europe.
Remember the war in Yugoslavia. The impression is that Europe with their hands to create a source of instability for themselves. But do not forget that direct military action began and were not the countries of Europe, and their association with the U.S. military — NATO.
In the first case, integration would be mainly economic and objectively oriented to compete with the United States.
In the second case, integration was to not only within Europe, but the United States and Canada would be of not primarily economic, but political and military in nature and focused on the interests of the dominant NATO America.
The attack on Yugoslavia promised hope to persuade Europe to the side of the "NATO-centrism." But this idea was not implemented in full, and soon America in search of new ways to integrate non-economic urged Europe to the Union in the war against "international terrorism." Europe creaked, but agreed. But by the beginning of the second war with Iraq, major European countries (France and Germany) have objected to his participation in the American adventures.
But eventually, the euro did not replace the dollar in international markets.
In addition to attempts to subordinate their interests euro market, the United States attempted to expand the global demand for dollars, contributing to the destabilization of economies, in particular, Russia and a number of Latin American countries before the euro (because the national economy "soaks up" additional amounts of the world's reserve currency because of the growth of trouble ). From this point of view should be considered and an unprecedented debate in Argentina in 1999, the possibility of rejection of the national currency and the transition to an internal appeal of U.S. dollar. By the way, the effects were very interesting: for the next two years (by October 2001) was Argentina's credit rating fell, it took the last place in the long-term credit rating of developing countries.
But the danger of the dollar does not come only from the euro. Japan is trying to create a "zone of yen" in Southeast Asia. It is true that the world's financial bigwigs have plunged the country into nearly a decade of economic difficulties, the idea of tearing at its early stage of maturation. Nevertheless, as one of the potential it still exists.
Another contender for the role of Asian regional currency — the Chinese yuan. The Chinese have taken into account the experience of turning the U.S. dollar in the world's reserve currency, have realized the benefits associated with this and are keen to make the yuan a regional reserve currency in Southeast Asia. In solving the problem, they can rely on in many countries of Asia the Chinese diaspora.
The dollar is weak. He reminds zdorovuschego boxer who had forgotten the rules of boxing — it still afraid, but it is for the time being. We must not forget that today, dollar not secured U.S. national wealth. Assessment of its security drops to 2-3%. It is true that the highest estimates (which put the Americans) reach 45%. But be that as it may, such a low level of security, sooner or later the world will be realized and will lead to a drastic devaluation of the dollar and plunge mankind into a global economic collapse.
Now let's talk about social realities of America. On characteristics such as income inequality, poverty, the number of prisoners, the environment, the U.S. leads the developed countries. Clinton boom and five years of Bush junior in no way changed this, the trend for the worse. International comparisons also show the U.S. in a negative light: for such a rich country, the number of poor is very large.
The last argument of the apologists of the American way is an appeal to their legendary social mobility, such as the one shoe shiner, and look to, wake up a millionaire. But in reality people tend to spend their lives within the social group to which they were born. No significant differences in the models of mobility between the U.S. and Europe.
America is significantly divided. Some go to the virtual life in the reality where nobody knew where you can behave as you pleased — in a reality that you can come up with myself. Today, an American computer — it is a way of life, not just a means of obtaining information or a tool for shopping. It is a means of communication, work, travel, perform, not leaving the house. But leaving the virtual world not only leads to the separation of man from the state and society, it leads to the separation of man from his country.
Well behaved "advanced" part of American society. And at that time by those who as a result of the country's transition to a post-industrial world has become marginalized and have not found a place in the newly emerging areas of economic activity? To any virtual reality, they are not going to go away. They fill the streets of American cities. Social subsidies can not work and have bread and an additional perk of criminal cases and the drug trade makes money for butter …
All this, of course, sad and add some color to the disaster, when it breaks out.
The last topic that would be worth mentioning in the chapter on unstable America — this ethnic conflict.
Constituent element of the U.S. — the total area captured by the right of the strong. The citizens of the country (with a few exceptions) — immigrants in different generations. And not based on national traditions, material culture is extremely America from the very beginning of its history was all aimed at the creation of a "new man." Every citizen was to be first of all one hundred percent American. This system, called the "melting pot» (melting pot), worked well, until the "melting" refers to immigrants from the European Germanic languages. German, English and Dutch "melted" quite successfully. First failures began with the beginning of mass Italian immigration. In the big cities of America there were "Italian village", and as a consequence — Italian organized crime, the Mafia. But it became very bad, when the U.S. surged Chinese immigrants and people of other countries in South-East Asia.
After that, the United States ceased to be a "melting pot" of nations. The country has emerged regions, cities and towns (and very densely populated), where it does not necessarily speak English. And now there is the place where you have to own only Russian.
Today, many people are not going to become a "true" Americans: Why, they already have all the benefits. In the middle of the civil society, "one hundred percent Yankees" A huge enclaves of traditional societies. As for the national "mafia", they are often the only such in the eyes of the Yankees. Just in America any national community raises money from their national merchants in some of their interests. Merchants pay this national tax, of course, cheating IRS. Here you have the entire mafia.
Among the descendants of the first settlers of the division by nations is also in full swing. If in the 1950s, whites accounted for 90% of the population, and most of the rest were negros, descendants came here two hundred years ago, slaves, in the early 1990s, whites have only 75.6%, and it is expected that in two to three decades, there will be less than half the population. "It is not white" is now a part of not just negros. South Florida Cubans actively colonize, California and Texas — Mexicans. Whites are leaving the states, as well as New York, moving into the inner regions of the country. Negros run on its traditional South.
Ethnic groups intensively into the organs of government. They form their own, separate political structures that do not dissolve in the existing political system. They just use it for their own long-term goals? Negro movement raises the green flag of Islam and in quite an intelligent form requires to create a separate Negro state in the United States. And it is — a consequence of the different interests of the "simple" America, divided into dozens of traditional societies and social groups, and "America", which was some kind of supranational global corporation.
To sum up.
Today, the economic situation in the U.S. is critical. The dollar is under tremendous inflationary potential, resulting in a mad growth external deficit. When it grows in interest per year, it is not very good. When the interest in a month — it's terrible. And it was only in June 2004 grew by 19%, it is something unimaginable. It looked through the obvious consequence of the structural economic crisis, which caused inconsistency and lack of input-output of the "new economy", and American dollar, no doubt, expect a sharp drop.
The so-called post-industrial economy "Bestowed" States dangerous paradox. On monetary dogma falling currency inevitably entails improving the trade balance. The reasons are quite clear: it is advantageous to buy goods of own manufacture, export and becomes unprofitable to buy goods abroad. About what happened in Russia in late 1998. In the U.S., the opposite is true: the fall of the dollar has not affected the foreign trade deficit, he even continued to grow. That can not be! But there is, and the reason is that the U.S. is rapidly deindust-rializirovalis. There simply are no products of its own production, which would be "closed" decreasing imports.
U.S., even as the state system, but as a country, can be considered as the most internally disunited country of the world. Here in general there are no shared traditions. That, and individualism, taken to the extreme — that's what the society unstable U.S..
Against this background of growing social stratification, dissatisfaction, lack of people not only in the U.S. but all over the world …