Resignation Medvedev — a done deal

In the public space of the country in recent months, the highest level in almost two elite openly stated position, almost diametrically opposite to each other. As with everything that happens in the elite area, they have not articulated in all their points, but the most important seems to have been declared.

Shortly before the new year, Medvedev in an interview, has publicly declared that the tandem as existed and exists, and will exist for a long time. Speaking recently at the Gaidar readings, he proclaimed that the basis for the development of a competitive and develop the country's economy and it is the government intends prescription Gaidar. He has done so on the day after he was given to understand that the presidential structure unhappy activities of his government.

That is, its position is conscious and demonstrative, as well as the disrespect shown to the public demonstration of its identity with the name Gaidar.

On the other hand, also shortly before the New Year in "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" published an article by Yevgeny Primakov, which explicitly states that all the problems of the Russian economy — from hobby market myths. In the example cited experience rejection of the classical market relations in the framework of the "New Deal" of Roosevelt and expressly noted that the Russian economy has no prospects, if it does not abandon the market mythology.

And this week in the mass media have a certain private corporate events, where the same Primakov declared that the era of the tandem in Russia ended (he later said it is open — in a long article published in "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" January 16. D . — Comm. KM.RU).

Leaving out the question of what is more correct from a general theoretical point of view, it makes sense to try to compare the importance of these words and their significance in terms of the expression of the orientation and the weight of those groups whose interests are represented by these statements and make their policies.

Obviously, such Medvedev. It is clear that he — and the prime formal second person in the official hierarchy.

It is clear now that Primakov has no official status and have not collected. However, it is clear when and by whom it was. As it is clear and that it would never be what he was, especially a candidate member of the Politburo, had he not known the value of his word and did not allow myself to speak publicly and write only what is currently needed and makes sense speaking and writing. Even at a private corporate event.

In addition, Mr. Putin, in the famous episode of political competition in the 1999 campaign, it could nonetheless have a special and rather trust — as much as it can to be honest the two professional scouts and two former heads of the leading special services. And we should never forget the time after retirement Primakov in May 1999, when as late as next weekend after the then head of the FSB Putin arrived at the head of the agency board to the country fell into disgrace to the former prime minister, to give it a name of honor weapons.

Primakov never tell what will be a hostile Putin. A "Russian newspaper" will never publish conceptual article contrary to the position of supreme power of the country.

On the other hand, we know that what is said Medvedev, he said quite frankly, but, as he let out on television in his "extensive interview", "can shoot the breeze with no end." That is, he knows what he says, but "pulls" are not always aware of the importance of those words that are spoken. In this sense it is very badly injured himself during his presidency.

Suggestion that was made to him in the publication of the "News", where referring to the experts, it was stated the government's resignation in March, he either did not understand at all, or did not appreciate his seriousness. Or, speaking at the Gaidar readings, he decided to publicly confirm its status as a person with the authority to determine and to sound economic policy. The idea is that this is to a certain extent is the prerogative of the prime minister did, but not all, and not at any time. Because in the administrative and political traditions of Russia and a similar system exists experience situations where a person, for whatever reason is not removed from office, and he is still in this status is, of participating in the meetings, meet — but politically it anymore. And all those present know that it is not. They have already announced, but recommended to pretend that they do not know. And the man himself begins to suspect that he is no more, but drives the thought, and that its silence, trying to make more meaningful and confident statement, giving him the illusion that he is still there.

Of course, to say that "Medvedev is no", probably while it would be wrong. But the impression is created, especially given the three facts of political life.

First — just demonstrative publication "News."

The second — the declaration made Primakov: "Tandem no more." And it is not even the fact that it is not (in the summer we have already spoken about what it is to replace the tandem of "Political Bureau"), but the fact that Medvedev — is no longer a member of the tandem. That is it — is no longer a member of the highest political authority of the country. It was also said that the situation has changed, and Putin is both formal and de facto leader of the country. That is what it means? This means that, at the very closed corporate meeting of the elite, for whatever reasons, it was announced that Medvedev will not be treated not only as a member of the duo, but as a second person in the state. This decision may not be final. Maybe this is only a form of warning: "Stop. Your status has been changed. Change the role, and then leave it to you. "

But here the third fact — just his arrival on Gaidar reading and loud statements on them — shows that either he did not understand the warnings, or already feel myself that there was something distinctly unpleasant, but attempts (by the scheme, which was mentioned above) to suppress this feeling and to create the illusion that he drowned it in others.

And this does not mean that tomorrow, next week or in March, will really be decided and announced his official resignation. If the above assumption is correct, the situation is "rejected, but not completely lag" can last a very long time — until the moment when the fact of formal resignation can extract maximum political advantage.

This may be not soon. And maybe soon. After publication in the "News" market-oriented experts have argued that the conflict between the AP and the Council of Ministers — is a conflict between the supporters of the "party control" (state regulation), and the "party of efficiency" (market and independence), in which the government attaches to the last.

But the problem is that as time efficiency, this party has not shown — either by Gaidar, nor in 1998. The crisis of 2008-2009 was relatively painless overcome only through the active intervention of the state in the economy. Moreover, during the existence of this government advertises its supporters carrier "principle of efficiency", no effective progress is not demonstrated. And, after Medvedev's speech at the Gaidar readings announced at its meeting Putin, at the beginning of last year, GDP growth of 3% by the end of the year it dropped to 1%. That is just for the lifetime of this government.

The last sentence, he has not said. But it gave hope to hear it.

Sergei Chernyakhovsky
Category: Hypotheses

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