NIC predicted to transform the world in which "no country, whether it be the U.S., China or any other major power, will not be able to become a center of regional hegemony." This assumption reflects the four "mega-trends": the individual capabilities and the global growth of the middle class, the diffusion of power from states to the informal networks and coalitions; demographic changes caused by urbanization, migration and aging, an increase in demand for food, water and energy.
Each trend is changing the world and "significantly reverses the historical rise of the West, which began in 1750, and restores the weight of Asia in the world economy is entering a new era of" democratization "in the international and national level." The United States remains the "first among equals" with the soft and hard power, but ended unipolar moment. "
However, predicting the future by extrapolating current trends has never been entirely accurate. Surprises are inevitable, and NIC also provides a definition of "game-changer" (factors that change the game — approx. Trans.), Ie results, which could reject the basic tendencies off course in unexpected ways.
The first of these sources of uncertainty is the global economy: Will the volatility and imbalances to collapse, or Will Substantially multipolarity greater sustainability? Besides, whether the governments and institutions to adapt quickly enough to changes or are they overwhelmed?
In addition, while the number of international conflicts will be reduced, internal conflicts in some regions such as the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, caused by young people, identity politics and scarce resources will continue. This leads us to another potential game-changer: regional instability will continue to constrain or to fuel global threats.
Also, there are many issues related to the impact of new technologies. Exacerbate conflict, or whether they will be developed in time, and whether the widely available in order to solve the problems caused by population growth, rapid urbanization and climate change?
The latest game-changer will be the future role of America. According to NIC, the multifaceted nature of the power of the United States suggests that, even in 2020, when, according to estimates, China will overtake America in economic terms, the United States in 2030 is likely to retain the world leadership, along with other great powers. "The potential for overloading the U.S. growing demands", allegedly NIC, «is greater than the risk that the U.S. replaced the world as an outstanding political leader."
Is this good or bad for the world? According to NIC, «or the sudden collapse of the U.S. retreat from power, is likely to lead to a prolonged period of global anarchy" without "a stable international system or the leading force that can replace the United States."
In NIC discussed earlier version of the project with intelligence officials and officials from over 20 countries, and found that none of the new world powers did not have to do with the revisionist lines reign of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan or the Soviet Union. However, the relationships of these countries with the United States is mixed. They benefit from a world order led by the U.S., but often chafe at American disrespect or unilateralism. One of the positive aspects of a multipolar world is to reduce the influence of the U.S., but the only thing that could be worse than the international order, with U.S. support, is the lack of order in general.
The question of America's role in helping to create a softer world in 2030 conceived the serious implications for President Barack Obama after he became president for the second time. The world is facing a new set of transnational challenges, which include climate change, international terrorism, cyber-security and pandemic. To address these issues requires cooperation.
Obama's National Security Strategy of 2010 suggest that the U.S. government should think of as a game with a positive-sum, not zero. In other words, in some cases, more powerful China will be beneficial to the U.S. (and the world). For example, the U.S. would benefit if China increased its ability to control their (lead compared to other countries) and greenhouse gas emissions.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to the Obama administration's foreign policy as based on "smart power," which combines the tools of hard and soft power, and argues that we should not speak of a "multipolar world" and a "multi-partnership ". In addition, the NIC report says that Americans should learn more about how to use the power of both, as well as over other states.
It should be noted that, in matters arising from the international military relations, understanding how to build alliances and balance of power is the deciding factor. However, even the best military agreements little help in addressing new transnational challenges that threaten the security of millions of people, or at least the same amount as traditional threats. Leadership in such matters will require cooperation, institutions, and the creation of public goods from which all could benefit, and from which no one could be excluded.
The report made NIC fair conclusion that it is impossible to predict for sure what will the world look like in 2030. Then, will unfold on the good or bad scenario depends in part on the policies we make today.
Joseph Nye — former Deputy Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council. Currently a professor at Harvard University. One of his last works — "The future of power» (The Future of Power).
Original publication: The World in 2030