A preliminary forecast of the main risks in 2013 by Russian Emergencies Ministry begins with a description of seismic hazard. Expected strong earthquake on Sakhalin — just north of the disaster relief, which in 2007 were recorded strong aftershocks. Then the magnitude was 6.8, after which happened 100 aftershock jolts. 51 houses were damaged, the homeless were 1,200 families. More than 24 people received compensation.
In 2013, predicted to be more severe earthquakes — a magnitude of 7.5 or more.
In addition to the danger threatening the South Sakhalin and the northern Kuril Islands, Kamchatka south, including the city of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Yelizovo Viluchinsk, near the Gulf of Kamchatka, the Kamchatka Strait, including the Bering Island.
Tsunami height can reach 5-8 meters.
Severe earthquakes are predicted in southern Russia — Stavropol and Krasnodar Territories, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. At the end of 2012 Sochi residents felt several strong aftershocks. For example, on December 23 the magnitude of the earthquake was 5.7, and on December 10 the magnitude of the quake was 4.8.
The situation with the floods in some areas will require special attention. Spring increased risk of emergency arises in the Central, North-Western regions in the northern and central regions of the Volga region. The fall of the river was too full-flowing due to the abnormally high temperatures and ice on them appeared in 7-10 days later than usual. Expected in the spring floods. In the south of the Volga and Ural regions, on the contrary, the ice was formed with a reduced level of the rivers, in the end in the spring, when the flood begins, the rivers may have ice jams.
The problem can create the Volga-Kama cascade hydropower plants reservoir filled to the brim — by 90-100%, and in the spring they will have to drop out of the excess water.
The lowest occupancy in Nizhnekamsk Reservoir, the largest — in the Kama.
However, adverse developments could occur in early and stormy spring combined with more precipitation. Can be submerged nizkopoymennye river sections, cottages, including illegally built in the area of the spill.
In the South and the North Caucasus regions predicted heavy floods above long-term averages. Prerequisites for this prediction were not disclosed.
In the Far East and Siberian regions of high water will be as usual: the ice established at normal water levels, however, for 2-10 days after the long-term averages.
"Must be natural fires" — say in the MOE. In the 19 regions of the country there are risks of throwing fire at houses.
This forecast is given to Moscow, Tver, Vladimir, Yaroslavl, Voronezh and Ryazan regions. Firefighters need to prepare in the Volgograd region, Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, in Mordovia, in the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions. And also in the Altai and Transbaikal edges, Omsk, Irkutsk and Amur regions and the Khabarovsk Territory. To avoid threats, security measures need to be taken — to pave the firebreaks between the housing and the forest, check occupancy fire reservoirs.
Management of the ski resorts of Krasnodar region can not skip past the attention of a poor prognosis for MES avalanches and landslides.
An increasing number of dangerous meteorological processes and phenomena, the authors add the forecast. Sounded the same warning to the North Caucasus region, mountain Siberian region and Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Magadan and Chukotka.
Accidents on the electric power systems in the MOE said that their main reason — the falling of trees on wires. Such threats are predicted for the 28 regions of Russia, including Moscow, the Moscow region, as well as St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. Serious emergencies that can strike at a few localities may occur in 13 regions, including in the Tver and Leningrad region.
The Ministry's experts remind us that the leadership of some regions should pay attention to the lack of emergency teams: the length of power lines and utility networks, corresponding to one emergency personnel, is 1.5-3 times higher than the national average.
It is about Altai, Krasnodar, Perm and Krasnoyarsk regions, Omsk, Saratov, Voronezh, Belgorod and Tver regions.
Accidents on the public network in 37 regions predicted to inter-municipal level and in 12 subjects to the regional level.
In 2013, will once again explode gas in homes, there's no getting around it.
Contribute to this high wear brownie gas equipment, inadequate maintenance of the equipment rules. The greatest risk of explosion predicted for Moscow, the Moscow Region, Belgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, Saratov, Samara, Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, Dagestan, and to Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk and Novosibirsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk.
The number of fires in settlements in 2013 will be lower by 5-6%, according to the MOE.
By the same percentage will reduce the number of deaths in the fire, hoping to rescue. This suggests reducing the number of fires in recent years.
In addition, the control of the massive rescue of the disease. In 2013, the expected outbreak of African swine fever in the South, Central, Volga and North-West districts. If the regional authorities will pay little attention to quarantine measures, the local centers can occur in any part of the country.
As rescuers prepared to infectious diseases of people, including influenza, SARS. However, their distribution is expected to be long-term averages. Outbreaks of acute intestinal infections projected from June to October because of violations of sanitary regulations for food storage. The dissemination of intestinal infection will reduce the number of inspections by Rospotrebnadzor enterprises engaged in the production and turnover of food products due to the imperfection of the legal framework.
In general, the earlier the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations Vladimir Puchkov, 2013 is expected to more prosperous than the 2012-th. "There is no global cataclysms we do not expect. The next year, according to our calculations, would be quite stable, the average for all indicators. In some places, of course, possible anomalies. To do this, does our situation center, and in any case, our employees were warned of the impending danger, "- said Tufts.