The chances that global warming be kept at the level of two degrees from pre-industrial levels, rapidly melting. According to surveys of international research groups, carbon dioxide emissions in the current year will amount to 35.6 billion tons, which is 2.6% higher than in 2011 and 58% — in 1990.
The average emissions grew in 1980 by 1.9% a year in 1990 — by 1.0%, and in 2000 — as much as 3.1%. Since the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels rose by 41% and it is expected that by the end of the century it will double, with catastrophic consequences for the climate.
|Geography emissions data for 2010 (full version here).|
Recently, the World Meteorological Organization has announced that in 2011 the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a new record. Carbon dioxide concentrations reached 391 propromille. In this case, the CO2, estimated annual report preparers Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, 85% of the so-called radiation heating, the result of which is global warming.
Meanwhile, in Doha (Qatar) ended the first week of the Eighteenth Conference of the Parties of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 18). For the umpteenth time, Messrs deliberative talk about the inadmissibility of warming above two degrees and the need for a radical reduction. But as bitterly recognized Corinne Le Coeur, Director of Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, no one wants to listen to the scientists.
Christina Figueres, Executive Secretary of the Convention, said at a meeting that a new international agreement is not out of the question, as each country will take measures to reduce emissions at the local level. From this point of view, the situation can only please the pessimists: in industrialized countries, greenhouse gas emissions falling slowly (due to the economic downturn, the transfer of production to developing countries, dissemination of alternative energy sources and switching to natural gas extraction method hydraulic fracturing, making this energy source cheaper than coal), but this reduction is more than offset by strong growth in emissions in developing countries like China and India, which continues to rely on the most "dirty" fuels — coal. In 2011, its use has increased by more than 5%.
The results are published in the journals Nature Climate Change and the Earth System Science Data Discussions.
Prepared according to the BBC, BBC and New York Times.