MOSCOW, Dec. 17 — RIA Novosti. In just a few days, at the end of this week, there will be December 21, 2012 — a day known to all as the date for the end of the world, "the Mayan calendar." RIA Novosti presents the most popular in the media and on blogs doomsday scientists and comments to these scenarios.
The end of the Mayan calendar
Scenario: The idea of completing a calendar created by the ancient Mayan, became the core concept of the end of the world December 21, 2012. Parts of the world in recent decades declared many times, but in all cases it was a private matter that group or sect, which preached a version of the apocalypse.
End of the World "on the Mayan calendar," has become incredibly popular in the community, especially in popular culture, where the subject-jokingly poluvserez began to spin, making this game in the end of the world is nearly universal madness. All other options "doomsday" gradually became tied to this date.
The idea of the end of the Mayan calendar, or rather the end of the largest of its cycles and the consequent end of the world, appeared in 1975 in a book by American author and journalist Frank Waters "Mystery in Mexico: The arrival of the sixth era of consciousness." In it he describes the period of the 13 largest Mayan calendar cycle as a "Mayan Great Cycle" and equated five such cycles to five eras ("Sun"), each of which is accompanied by destruction of the world and its rebirth.
Later, the idea of the end of the world in 2012 appeared in the books of Terence McKenna. Proponents of New Age movement actively developed these ideas, it is in this environment, there were various versions of "doomsday" in 2012, which were associated not only with the culture of the Maya, but also with the astrological calculations.
House scribe on the walls of which archaeologists have found an ancient astronomical calendar of the Maya Empire
Comment scientist: Classical Maya tradition contains no representations about the end of the world, said the deputy director Mesoamerican center named Knorozov Russian State University for the Humanities (RSUH) Dmitri Belyaev.
"In classical mythology Maya catastrophism not .. All that is allegedly linked to the Maya — will be an earthquake, or any another disaster, it's all there in the Aztec calendar mythology" — says Belyaev.
According to him, it was an incorrect connection of the two traditions and created a modern myth about 2012. The concept of the five "suns" Waters was taken exactly from the Aztec tradition.
"It is often said that the Maya there is a change of the fourth or fifth of the sun — this is nonsense. Suns of the Maya periods are not designated," — said the scientist.
He added that in December 2012 — the date of the "end of the world" — can not come and the end of the Aztec period.
Belyakov noted, that the Mayan calendar does not contain any "end." "As a cyclical calendar, it can not end at all. So when we try to explain that in 2012," the Mayan calendar ends, "is no less foolish than to say that it will end. Calendar such result can not" — said the scientist.
The Mayan calendar, the so-called "long count", is composed of five of nested loops. The largest cycle — level five — is 144,000 days, 20 periods of 20 conventional years. In the Maya hieroglyphic writing it by the word "rush".
The idea that the end of the 13th peak will occur in December 2012 based on the line, which was found in 1950 on the site of El Tortuguero in the Mexican state of Tabasco. The text on the monument of the 7th century tell of the life of the local ruler, of his birth, accession, how he conquered neighboring lands.
"At the end of the calculation is, a reference to the future, and says that the passage of time, the day 4 Ahau 3 Kankin of the month — this is a different system of Mayan account of time — over the 13th peak," — said Belyaev.
According to him, the end of this period will be followed by the arrival of the god Bolon called octets, which from the point of view of the Maya will rule next period of 13 peaks, which will begin in 2012 and should be completed in 7136 year.
Scenario: Mysterious planet Nibiru or Planet X approaches the Earth in December 2012 encounter with her or fly so close that it will shift the axis of rotation of the Earth and a global catastrophe. According to another version, Nibiru — a brown dwarf, failed star that is approaching the Earth and its gravity would lead to disaster.
Comment scientist: Source of ideas about the unknown planet in the solar system were Zechariah Sitchin (Zecharia Sitchin), a supporter of the theory paleocontacts with extraterrestrial civilizations. In 1976, he published the book "The Twelfth Planet", in which, on the basis of their allegedly translated Sumerian sources, wrote about the planet Nibiru, which is comparable to the mass of the Earth, and makes one revolution around the Sun is 3.6 thousand years. Nibiru, in his version, inhabits a highly developed civilization, whose representatives have visited Earth in this century.
Later, an American psychic Nancy Lieder (Nancy Lieder), citing information received telepathically from residents of the planetary system constellation star Zeta Nets, said that the Earth is in danger, in May 2003, in connection with the approach of Planet X or Nibiru. When this period nothing happened, judgment day has been moved to December 2012. Since Nibiru related idea that the U.S. government and other countries conspired to hide information about its approach.
However, astronomers are confident that there is no "extra" on the planet in the solar system do not.
"If Nibiru was a reality, it would be detected and tracked thousands of astronomers, both amateurs and professionals around the world. Astronomical community I know, it's the scientists who would not have to keep secrets, even if they were ordered," — says a NASA Astrobiology Institute, David Morrison (David Morrison).
He notes that if Nibiru existed in reality, it would be visible to the naked eye in the sky at the beginning of 2012, and its gravity would affect the orbits of Earth and Mars. And if it was not the planet Nibiru, a brown dwarf, it is already beyond the orbit of Pluto's brightness slightly inferior to the brightness of Venus, astronomers have detected it is still very far from our solar system.
Scenario: In 2012, heavy-duty solar flash lead to geomagnetic storms incredible force on the planet. Due to magnetic storms will become impossible radio, will fail spacecraft burned up transformers, causing the planet to begin rolling blackouts. As a result, energy infrastructure will collapse, and the whole civilization will be set back by two centuries ago, in the era before electricity. The greatest damage will be done to the developed countries — the most dependent on electronic systems.
Comment scientist: Many predictions of "solar catastrophe" makes reference to a report by NASA and the Academy of Sciences of the USA. Indeed, in 2008, the National Academy of Sciences of the USA published a report (Severe Space Weather Events — Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts), which contained an analysis of the technological risks in the event of extremely severe manifestations of solar activity.
However, this document does not contain any predictions of solar activity. In the case of extremely strong magnetic storms can damage transformers in areas close to the magnetic poles, as it were, for example, in Quebec in 1989, where the geomagnetic storm provoked blackout.
But at the moment the sun does not show any sign of ultrahigh activity.
Laboratory of X-ray astronomy of the Sun Lebedev Physical Institute (LPI) Sergey Bogachev says it is surprised by scientists, by contrast, abnormal calm sun.
"The maximum solar activity had to be in 2011, then scientists have assumed that the maximum shifted to 2012. But now the average monthly Wolf numbers (which are determined by the number of sunspots) is almost three times lower than the usual values for the maximum," — said Bogachev.
According to him, the sun experiences a major failure cycle, similar to that observed in the late 18th century during the Dalton minimum of two 11-year cycles.
The change of the magnetic poles
Scenario: In December 2012 may start changing the magnetic poles of the earth — the south pole will move to a place north and vice versa. At the same disastrous consequences will bear phase between these two conditions — at this point the magnetic field of the earth for a while may disappear altogether. Scientists supposedly already fixed the gradual loss of strength of the magnetic field that points to future disasters.
The Earth's magnetosphere protects the surface of the planet from the flow of charged particles from space. Disappearance of the field means a sharp increase in the level of radiation that threatens not only the living beings, and electronic devices.
In addition, the absence of a magnetic field leads to the "brain" of the atmosphere — by radiation its upper layers more quickly dissipate in space. That lack of a global magnetic field, according to many scientists, destroyed Mars — radiation "torn off" with his old dense atmosphere, turning the Red Planet in the desert.
Comment scientist: Although the history of the Earth really is a change of the magnetic poles, such a process could not happen in a day or a year, or even a few hundred years, says the head of the laboratory of the Institute of Physics of the Earth's geomagnetic Vladimir Pavlov.
"The last time there was a reversal of the magnetic field of about 780 000 years ago. If homo sapiens appeared 240,000 years ago, which means that our species has never experienced a geomagnetic reversals. Moreover, most scholars agree that the process from start to finish It takes a few thousand years — from 2-3 to 7-10 thousand years. Thus, the truth, the most active stage, can occur within a millennial time frame. On the other hand, some experts believe that some reversal in Earth's history could last tens of thousands of years. Either way, it's not the years and decades, "- said Pavlov.
He explained that the Earth's magnetic field is generated by eddy currents in the liquid outer core of the Earth — a structure similar to cyclones and anticyclones in the atmosphere. System is a complex combination of different oscillating fields, currents. And it has two quasi-stable states, which correspond to one polarity and the other.
"As a result of random variations can occur leap from one state to another quasistability" — said the scientist.
In the process of change of position of the poles is changing configuration of the field, and its intensity can be an order of magnitude — that is 10 times — weaker, although the field will not disappear entirely. The level of radiation at the surface of the planet can really grow, but there is no scholarly consensus on how much radiation will increase, and what other consequences might bring the weakening of the magnetosphere.
"It is not obvious thing, this issue is discussed. Is calculations that radiation can, and not much, longer. According to other estimates, during a geomagnetic reversal to sharply increased electrical processes in the atmosphere, thus can significantly increase storm activity. This can also be expected significant climatic changes.
Although, as noted by Pavlov, according to reports, the day before the inversion should occur a significant reduction of geomagnetic field, there is no special reason to say that what is happening in the last few centuries, reducing the tension of the dipole field means that the magnetic field of the Earth is in its inversion stage.
"The last few hundred years, the field is reduced. But for the 780,000 years since the last reversal, it is many times reduced and increased. Thus the question of whether we live in the beginning of a period when the field begins to change its polarity, it is, in principle, is scientific in nature, "- said Pavlov.
The question of the character of geomagnetic reversals and the associated risks is still poorly known and requires special study.
However, the scientist, not a "magnetic catastrophe" tomorrow or in the next few decades out of the question.
Scenario: The solar system in its motion around the galaxy crosses the galactic equator — the Earth, the Sun and the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy would be in line, leading to disaster. On December 2012, many promising parade of planets — when all the planets in the solar system also line up in one line, which will also lead to a catastrophe.
According to another version, attributed to "the lama of the monastery under Gyandrek Kailas", the solar system will go into a galactic "null zone," where not be subject to any electromagnetic waves, including visible light. This will continue for two weeks. This version of the "end of the world" it is possible to survive if get firewood and food. In two months, energy infrastructure will be restored and life will go on track.
Comment scientist: No parade of planets in 2012 and in the next few years, astronomers do not expect, says a NASA Astrobiology Institute Morrison.
"Many sites discussed alignment in line with the Sun and the Earth center of the galaxy, which is located in the constellation Sagittarius. This happens every December, and without any bad effects.'s No reason to expect that 2012 will be different from any other year," — said scientist.
Speaking about the possible effects of gravity of the black hole, he noted that the solar system is 30 thousand light-years away, and the gravitational effect of it is negligible.
"Zero Zone" in the Galaxy also relates to fantasy. Physicist Valery Rubakov Institute for Nuclear Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences says that it is impossible to create a space in which "sank" to the electromagnetic waves.
"Electromagnetic waves can not propagate in a dense medium, such as water. But in the empty space they can not be stopped," — he said.
Yellowstone supervolcano explosion
Scenario: In 2012, completed the 74-thousand-year cycle between eruptions of supervolcanoes — it is expected that the eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano (or Yellowstone caldera) in the U.S. will lead to an almost global environmental disaster — a huge amount of ash ejected into the upper atmosphere, will be the beginning of volcanic winter, loss of vegetation and mass starvation.
One sign of approaching catastrophic eruptions are catastrophic tsunami in South East Asia. Yellowstone caldera — "vulnerability" as "cover", which separates the surface of a cavity filled with a huge amount of magma is very thin.
Some experts say that the nature of the seismic activity in the region of the Yellowstone supervolcano is now points to the approaching eruption. This is, supposedly, indicates the rise in the surface area of the volcano and temperature changes.
According to some versions, the Yellowstone caldera eruption would be triggered by the approach of the planet Nibiru.
Comment: Scientists call supervolcanoes volcanoes can throw into the atmosphere 10,000 times more ash than the "normal" volcanoes. For example, the Yellowstone supervolcano eruptions during the last 600 000 years ago, threw about 1 thousand cubic kilometers of ash and debris, though most historical catastrophic eruption threw only 50 cubic kilometers (Tambora, 1815) and 10 cubic kilometers (Krakatau 1883).
The most powerful eruption of this type occurred about 74 thousand years ago — the volcano Toba in Sumatra. Togla released into the atmosphere 2.8 thousand cubic kilometers of ash that covered with a thick layer all of South Asia. Last superizverzhenie occurred 26,000 years ago in New Zealand.
So far, volcanologists can not say with certainty that runs superizverzheniya, but they agree that such events are extremely rare and are likely to be a witness to the living is vanishingly small. Total geophysicists have found traces of some 50 ancient superizverzheny. This means that in a million years, accounts for 1.4 superizverzheniya.
However, some scientists do not rule out the possibility of the eruption of Yellowstone caldera in the next few decades.
"The forecast volcanic eruptions give very difficult. But it is possible that it can be activated and ten, and after 20 and 30 years. Volcanic eruption in this case depends on how the hearth, where the molten magma is saturated with gases — is carbon dioxide, ammonia, fluoride, "- said volcanologist Arthur Saltykov, chief researcher at the Institute of Earth Physics named Schmidt.
According to him, the American volcanologists are careful observation of the situation in the area — in fact for the eruption of the U.S. would be a disaster, almost the entire country would be covered with ash. However, to date no evidence pointing to the imminent eruption, no.
"It can definitely say that it is in the long term may be delayed. Yellowstone supervolcano eruption frequency — about once every 660,000 years. Far no signs of increased activity not" — said Saltykov.